Christian Sonnemann, Associate Director, Wood Thilsted
Not long ago, winning an offshore wind project almost guaranteed success.
With a solid business case in place, the focus was on execution. Interest rates were low, inflation stable, steel prices predictable, and supply chain costs were trending downward. The path forward was clear.
Today, that certainty is gone.
The offshore wind sector stands at a critical inflection point. Volatile markets, rising costs, supply chain pressure, policy uncertainty, and inflexible timelines are testing the sector’s resilience. Winning a project no longer guarantees a viable business case. And growing uncertainty makes it harder than ever to simply plan and proceed.
Now more than ever, flexibility, resilience, and strategic optionality must be built in from the very start – not as an afterthought, but as a core part of how projects are shaped.
At Wood Thilsted Advisory, we believe this shift requires more than process adjustments. It demands a mindset change: one that integrates technical, commercial, and strategic perspectives from day one – and builds projects not around fixed assumptions, but around holistic scenario building.
Strategic Responses and Solutions – how the sector can and must respond
Organisations should mitigate these challenges by taking positive action in different ways:
1. Embed Holistic Thinking from Day One
It is important to integrate technical, strategic and commercial perspectives early and prioritise value creation before locking in design or contracts – as this Wood Thilsted graphic illustrates:
Value creation is critical – early decisions made without a holistic perspective can significantly reduce value creation and expose any project to avoidable risk.
A. Avoid early design lock-in
In fact, locking-in design early limits flexibility. In one case, a project team chose to fix its detailed foundation design early in the development process, believing this would reduce uncertainty. However, that decision triggered a cascade of early commitments. Wind Turbine Generator (WTG) features were locked in, layouts frozen, and site investigations were scheduled prematurely. As a result, the project incurred a steep early spend curve and eliminated opportunities to optimise its foundation concept, supply chain flexibility, or procurement strategy. What looked like good planning at the time ultimately closed off options for cost savings and schedule optimisation, especially when the market or project requirements changed.
B. Foundation concept driven by RFI snapshots
Another project based its concept selection on Request for Information (RFIs) from suppliers. Foundation solution was chosen primarily based on price and capacity data provided from fabricators. The selection shaped the entire project schedule, from design to sourcing and installation. However, the RFI responses did not account for deeper uncertainties:
- The eventual foundation designs were significantly heavier due to changes in turbine size and soil conditions.
- A key fabricator failed to ramp up on time, delaying deliveries.
- Market dynamics shifted, and jacket yard pricing spiked due to demand from the shipping sector.
Because the foundation strategy was not developed through scenario-based analysis, the project lacked a clear view of alternative options, decision points, and mitigation paths. It had no roadmap for what other viable scenarios existed, or how changes in one area (design, supply chain, or installation) might impact the others.
In both cases, a structured, scenario-driven approach could have enabled better-informed decisions, preserved optionality, and reduced exposure to later-stage risks.
2. Use Scenario Planning to Navigate Uncertainty
Scenario planning will help organisations navigate project uncertainty. Therefore, it is necessary to develop alternative delivery pathways to deliver projects with a transparent view of risk and cost picture. There must be flexibility to pursue an alternative scenario if supply chain or technical assumptions are no longer correct.
3. Integrated Product Thinking
i. Accelerate Responsibly
Measures to standardise and modularise design will reduce time-to-market in offshore wind as will engaging in strategic partnerships rather than transactional tendering that often leads to a race to the bottom and siloed thinking in separate deliveries rather than a holistic and integrated mindset.
As more developers (e.g. Ørsted, Corio) increasingly strengthen their project set-up as opposed to a central organisation driving design and procurement choices, more responsibility is placed on engineering firms and the supply chain (e.g. Foundation Fabricators, installation contractors, steel mills) to step in and fill the void that integrated product thinking can enable.
ii. Control Cost Through Design and Strategy
To control costs, use value engineering and Total Cost of Ownership thinking to balance CAPEX and OPEX. Secure key contracts early and strengthen local supply resilience where possible. Project oversight often shifts from one engineering firm to another at different stages of the project. This prevents continuous project optimisation, and shifts focus to transactional and tactical objectives rather than strategic outcomes. This can lead to lost opportunities, which are very costly in the long term.
iii. Think in Product Lines, Not Just Projects
Apply scalable, repeatable solutions across portfolios – e.g. foundation-as-a-service. Professionalise the product mindset to boost efficiency and delivery quality. This product mindset will enable measurable supply chain efficiency gains. If not, suppliers will have to meet new requirements, designs, and standards from project to project.
4. Collaboration is Vital
To meet the challenges of today’s offshore wind environment, collaboration must move beyond transactional engagements toward transformational partnerships built on trust, shared accountability, and long-term value creation.
It is essential to work with advisors and partners who understand the entire value chain – from early-stage strategy and technical planning through to procurement, delivery, and operation. These partnerships must be deeply integrated, enabling teams to co-develop solutions that are grounded in a full understanding of project interdependencies.
Value creation begins at the earliest stages of a project, where the right decisions can unlock flexibility, optimise costs, and reduce risk. When advisors are engaged early and empowered to work collaboratively, they can help shape scenarios that align technical ambition with commercial viability. In doing so, they provide clarity on the conditions that need to be met at key decision points – ensuring that strategic options remain open and responsive to change.
True collaboration means planning together for multiple futures, not just delivering to a fixed path. It requires open dialogue, mutual accountability, and a shared commitment to optimising value across the project lifecycle. Only through this kind of integrated and forward-thinking collaboration can offshore wind projects achieve the resilience and scalability the sector now demands.
Thinking holistically for multiple futures
In sum, act early, think holistically and plan for multiple futures. Offshore wind remains a cornerstone of the energy transition, but its future success should not be taken for granted.
Offshore wind requires smarter and more integrated thinking.
Early-stage efforts should focus on evaluating meaningful scenarios and reducing real uncertainties, rather than investing a lot of time in detailing one or few single paths that may later prove suboptimal or irrelevant.
If we do this right, we, the industry can deliver on the hugely ambitious growth targets ahead of us and set new standards for how offshore wind projects are supported from ideation to seamless execution.
Christian Sonnemann is an Associate Director in offshore wind engineering consultancy Wood Thilsted’s Advisory business unit that delivers high-impact strategy services for the offshore wind sector. He is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.
About Wood Thilsted’s Advisory services
Wood Thilsted is known as the partner of choice for offshore wind developers seeking a dedicated advisor committed to their success, setting new standards for how projects are supported from early ideation and development to seamless execution.
Wood Thilsted’s Advisory business unit bridges technical, commercial and strategic expertise to deliver tailored solutions that create lasting value. It aims to address immediate project needs as well as a lifecycle view, helping clients achieve the best outcomes across all project phases.