Nick Elderfield, Head of UK and Ireland, Wood Thilsted
‘Mission: Possible’ may sound like the latest Tom Cruise Hollywood Summer Blockbuster, but in reality it is the strapline of Global Offshore Wind 2025 (GOW25) taking place this week at the Excel in London and organised by RenewableUK.
GOW25 will be focused on the challenges faced by British and international offshore wind players as they strive to reach ambitious deployment goals by 2030.
For the UK, the event is shaping up to be one of the most consequential industry gatherings in years given the Government’s drive to make good on its pledge to ramp up and deliver on the country’s clean energy targets.
For the offshore wind sector itself, GOW25 is a moment in time for the industry to discuss the most important issues of the day with leading energy companies and developers, technology partners, engineering consultancies, and the Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband, all present.
But how do we turn ‘Mission: Possible’ into reality and avoid a cliffhanger ending?
A Multitude of Industry Challenges at the AR7 Auction
The key issues to be discussed at GOW25 focus on several different areas – regulatory, political, technological and economic.
Going into 2025, hopes were high that the AR7 (Allocation Round 7) would be the largest ever for the UK’s wind sector. With the country still targeting a capacity range of 43-50 GW for offshore wind by 2030, AR7 would have to translate into something like 8 GW of committed wind capacity to have a chance of achieving this. Subsequent auctions in 2026 and 2027 would need to follow a similar trajectory.
Yet, this year’s Government Consultation on AR7 and requests for subsequent clarification from industry, developers and the supply chain, have brought delays of at least 6 months to the UK’s regular auction process for offshore wind.
A key focus at GOW25 will be for the industry to gain clarity on the potential updates to AR7 and how these changes can benefit the offshore wind sector going forward.
Attention will land on how the sector can make itself ‘mission fit’ for a newly updated Allocation Round structure, and how it can consent, design, procure and install to achieve the 2030 targets.
More broadly, the sector must look past AR7 to AR8 and beyond to see how it can derisk offshore wind as further allocation rounds become more ambitious and targets harder to reach.
In practical terms, this means getting the supply chain in place and confirming key project choices ahead of the auction rounds. It is also about embedding flexibility into the supply chain given the ever-shifting technical, political and regulatory environment.
Clarity on Great British Energy (GBE) and how it will push forward the offshore wind sector will be a useful point of discussion at GOW25 too, as will how the sector can benefit from GBE’s funding pathways.
“Net Zero is expensive and unwanted”
Another topic of conversation likely to feature at GOW25 is the emerging political narrative on Net Zero as expensive and unnecessary, which is damaging for the offshore wind sector not least because it seeks to minimise its contribution not just to mitigating climate change but also to the British economy. Furthermore, many stereotypes of the industry portrayed in the political and media space are often outdated, misplaced and just plain wrong!
From my perspective, this translates into the offshore wind sector needing to communicate more proactively about its fantastic achievements, and its ability to build bigger and further offshore.
New technological breakthroughs are enabling the offshore wind industry to build larger scale farms that create the huge amounts of energy that modern data- and electricity-hungry service industry dependent countries need to power their economies.
Wood Thilsted believes that modifications to fixed bottom design approaches can be engineered for deeper waters of 75-100 metres – far exceeding the traditional monopile designs that typically are around 60m deep (and this is well in excess of the historic limitations perceived for monopiles).
If we want to turn Mission Impossible into Mission Possible we need to examine these areas and the technologies that can transform the potential.
The sector must communicate clearly and consistently that offshore wind is a positive force in peoples’ lives.
Given the fact that floating offshore wind – identified as a growth opportunity for the UK Government – is several years away from maturity, we need to show how existing fixed bottom foundation designs will give us a fighting chance of achieving the 2030 targets as well as accessing deeper waters not just around the UK but internationally.
Extending traditional technologies is crucial to adding renewable capacity onto the grid as quickly as possible.
Positive International Developments
At GOW25, I also expect to hear about the incredible global growth potential for offshore wind particularly in APAC (Asia Pacific) where the sector’s development is gaining pace and potentially making up for the headwinds experienced in the USA. This region reflects huge demand for energy generation increasingly from renewables.
For example in Japan, the Government is targeting 30-45GW of offshore wind including floating by 2040. Australia, one of the windiest countries, also has ambitious plans with the Government of Victoria planning to open a significant wind auction in September this year. Korea is targeting offshore wind to help deliver on its climate targets in a similar vein.
Global progress is good as a rising tide lifts all ships, however, this means that if the UK wants to maintain its global leadership position it needs to move faster, speak louder and show the world the potential.
Therefore, ‘Mission: Possible’ is a timely frame through which to look at an offshore wind sector that faces more opportunities yet also more challenges than ever before. The fuse counting down to 2030 has been lit. To the developers, technology partners, engineering consultancies and policy makers – your mission, should you choose to accept it…
About Nick Elderfield
Nick Elderfield is an Associate Director at the specialist Offshore Wind engineering consultancy Wood Thilsted. He has over 24 years of experience across a range of offshore sectors, with the last 12 years being focused on Offshore Wind. Nick leads on the UK & Ireland markets for Wood Thilsted and has a technical role doing everything “wet and windy” as Head of the CALM (Climate Analytics, Loads and Metocean) Department.
Reach out to him at: nel@woodthilsted.com
